Time of Possession is a False Idol

I have long considered Time of Possession (TOP) a hidden cheat code. It seems obvious why I like this stat, right? The more time an offense is on the field, the more time their skill players will be getting action.

The golden example of this concept is greatly demonstrated by the Baltimore Ravens. In the 2019 season, Baltimore dominated TOP with an average of 34.4 minutes of possession every game. That was over 1.5 minutes more than second-place!

Understandably, Lamar Jackson, the League MVP that season, won a lot of fantasy football leagues too by scoring 89 points (standard scoring) more than every other player.

In general, Time of Possession is normally a good indicator of strong offenses. Respectively, the next three best offenses based on 2019 TOP are the Eagles, Saints, and New England. Each of these teams have powerful offenses with multiple highly valuable fantasy options. After all, a team’s TOP lengthens when they are trying to run out the clock at the end of a game.

Now let’s discuss the bad stuff. For starters, TOP is not only related to the offense. TOP is also dependent on the strength of a team’s defense. If a defense forces lots of punts and turnovers and punts, then they contribute heavily to the TOP stat. 3 of the 4 teams above – sorry, Philly – also had elite defenses in 2019.

Additionally, TOP can be dependent on style of play. Many coaches and offensive coordinators naturally prefer huddling after ever play, others are comfortable in a quick-offense.

Time of Possession also isn’t a very reliable statistic from season to season. Of the top ten TOP leaders in 2019, the four teams I’ve already mentioned are the only teams to also be in the top ten for 2018 or 2017 seasons. That makes it especially difficult when drafting and trying to predict future strong offenses.

So… TOP is not an end-all-be all statistic for good offenses or valuable players. But is there a good time to be seduced by this stat? For example, when considering Running Backs? My thought process goes something like this:

I’m willing to bet that other fantasy football GMs have had the same thought before. Well, I’ve finally decided to do some math to find how effective this idea really is. I compared TOP to the fantasy points of RB1s and RB2s of each team.

Last season, the correlation coefficient between TOP and RB1 fantasy points is approximately 0.106. that is an extremely weak correlation. The correlation coefficient between TOP and RB1 and RB2 production is a bit better, 0.292, but still awful. The sample size is rather small, but it seems obvious that there is no reliable correlation here. Below is a chart with a bit more information:

So what did we learn? Time of Possession is not a reliable statistic and it should not be a reason to draft any RB over another, especially top tier running backs. Instead, try using much more direct statistics like a team’s total run plays, or a player’s touches per game.

Thanks for reading my article. In the future, I hope you’ll think twice before you get temptingly swayed by a convincing Time of Possession statistic. Have fun this season… and remember, it don’t even schmatter.